Bulls Push the Pacers

Derrick Rose led an amazing attack against the Indiana Pacers to finish the Pacers in 5 games.  The series was a lot closer than it may seem.  The Pacers were able to push every game to the end.  The one thing that the Pacers were missing was a closer.  Danny Granger was not able to carry the team through the finals minutes of close game 1 and 2.  Rose performed like a soon to be MVP, and the Bulls interior defense continues to be incredibly tough.

DMack picked the Bulls in 5.  Another exact pick for DMack who had the Bulls in 5.  When Darren Collison went down with a bad ankle, the Pacers had some trouble keeping up with the Bulls.  The same exact problem took place for the Bulls when Derrick Rose went down with a rolled ankle.  That makes them the key matchup, and DMack with an excellent pick.

DMack Misses the Magic

The Magic in 6 seemed reasonable considering the smack down that they laid on the apathetic Atlanta Hawks.  It appears that even the most lackadaisical teams have enough pride to win an NBA playoff series.  With everybody counting the Hawks out (including DMack himself), the Hawks figured out how to win the series despite have a negative scoring margin in the first round series.

DMack wasn't even particularly accurate about that "Key Matchup."  (Yes, that's right DMack, I am taking you to the mat on this one.)  Al Horford and Dwight Howard went head to head, and Dwight Howard let Horford know what a real NBA All-Star looks like.  Howard finished the series with 27.0 ppg and 15.5 rpg, but was not enough for the win.  In fact, Howard had only 8 points and 8 rebounds in the Magic's Game 5 win.

The series came down to the rag tag bunch of perimeter players for the Magic that are clogging the offense, the backcourt, and the salary cap.  I really expected more from Jason Richardson, but the combination of Arenas, Nelson, and the awful Hedo Turkoglu added nothing to the Magic.  This Magic team needs to blown up, but I don't think that contracts will allow.  That is why Howard is not long for the O-Zone.

As for the Hawks, the next round match-up against the Bulls will be a lot different.  When they play a team that cares, and Atlanta doesn't have a personal vendetta, Atlanta will fold like 2-7 off suit.

Heat Too Much for 76ers

If you can't stand the Heat, get out of the playoffs.  The Miami Heat took care of the 76ers in 5 games, winning the first 3. Lebron finished the series with 42.2 minutes per game, producing 24.2 ppg, 10.6 rpg, and 6.2 apg.  Wade was equally as efficient with 22.2 ppg, 8.4 rpg, and 5.2 apg.  It was never really a question that the Heat would win this series.  With no adversity to speak of, the real question will come next round against the Celtics.

For the 76ers, the season turned out a lot better than anyone expected.  The first round exit is not exactly what they wanted, but for a team that drafted 2nd overall last year, it was quite a turn around.  The biggest reason for the 76ers poor performance can be summed up by Indiana's A.J. Price and Atlanta's Marvin Williams.  Those are the two players ranked above and below Andre Iguodala in PER.  The average player in the NBA has a PER of 15.00.  Iguodala finished with 14.90.  Elton Brand had a great series, but when your best player is turned to average, then you can't expect more than one win.

As for DMack, he played it perfectly.  Predicting the Heat in 5, DMack couldn't have been more accurate.  Lebomination (in deference to my insanely accurate colleague) was way too much for the Sixers host of mediocre small forwards.  While he was right about Iguodala's stellar defense, his offense proved to be of little help.  DMack, you are the man!

Celtics Sweep Knicks

The Boston Celtics proved once again that when it comes to Playoff time, they always have another gear.  The Celtics were well balanced with 4 different players leading the team in scoring over the four games.  Rondo averaged 19 ppg and 12 apg.  The quick series also gives the veteran team some time to prep for their next series against the Heat.

The New York Knicks were ultimately too shallow to keep up with a healthy Celtics.  After trading players 2-6 away to the Nuggets this season only to get players 2 & 3 in return means that this team was not prepped to overcome the injuries to Billups or Stoudemire.  Ultimately the line-up at center of Jared Jefferies, Ronnie Turiaf, and Sheldon Williams was not enough to stop even Jermaine O'Neal.

As for DMack's prediction, Boston in 7, he was right about the winner, but Boston managed it much faster than 7 games.  Boston had struggled through the end of the season, and the Knicks did look good in big games.  The injuries to Stoudemire and Billups were unforeseen, but no apologies!  Boston moves on, DMack gets a pass.

Stop Hiding Sports Writers

The day of reckoning is coming.  It is time for some accountability!  Today's sports writers are 50% actual content and 50% half-hearted predictions.  Sports writers throw out predictions like Tootsie Rolls on Halloween.  But when the series or game is over, they write a summary or a wrap-up or a human interest piece.  Wait, how about we address your complete inability to predict this game?

NBA Zone Press will not stand for such nonsense!  For every series through the playoffs, we will hold each other accountable for our predictions.  While I am not the least bit scared to stand up for my Nostradomus-like abilities, I know that DMack is absolutely quaking at the idea of having to answer to me.

Stay tuned for wrap-ups!

Run Run Rondo

The Boston Celtics just ended the Knicks first postseason in a decade led by none of its guaranteed Hall of Famers.  When the playoffs roll into Boston, it never ceases to surprise everyone that the player with the biggest impact is not in the "Big Three."  Rajon Rondo just finished the series 19.0 ppg, 12.0, apg, and 7.4 rpg.  All three categories are up significantly from his season averages.  But looking forward, and not the next few weeks forward, how is this Celtics team going to look when it is Rondo's team.  Knicks coach Mike D'Antoni said following the series ending loss, Rondo is a "very good basketball player" but attributes most of Rondo's success to the players around him.

It is a fair point.  How many times in NBA history have we had a player consistently producing triple doubles in the playoffs only to have the 5th or 6th (depending on your ability to remember Jermaine O'Neil before he died) best career on the team?  In a post Big Three world, Boston fans feel free to cover your ears and sing, what will Rondo's talents look like.  A potential starting line-up of Rondo, Avery Bradley, Jeff Green, Big Baby, and a Center to be named later.  That line-up doesn't exactly strike fear in the hearts of the Miami Heat or Oklahoma City Thunder.  Can Rondo consistently dish out assists at the same pace if there isn't anyone to make it?

Looking for precedence, the best Rondo can hope for is Steve Nash.  Steve Nash is universally recognized as one of the best point guards in the game.  He is not a big time point scorer, but he dishes out assists and runs the offense to perfection.  With Nash running the team, the Suns are always competitive, even in years when nobody expects it.  (see 2010 playoffs)  But there is one huge difference between Nash and Rondo,  Nash can shoot.  Nash is constantly flirting with the 50-40-90 club (FG%-3PT%-FT%).  Rondo likes to flirt with the 50-25-60 club. 

The worst case scenario for Rondo is Brandon Jennings.  In today's NBA, point guards are not jut fast or athletic or skilled, but they are all three. Derrick Rose, Deron Williams, Chris Paul, potentially John Wall with some more work, are all examples of how the position requires more than just a couple assets.  Brandon Jennings is just fast.  That is not to say that his skills won't allow him to drop 55 points, but he doesn't shoot a high percentage, and he can't survive in the lane.  If Rondo doesn't give a Derrick Rose like effort to improving his shooting, this is where he will end up. 

The most important "player" in determining how Rondo's career looks post-Big Three, Danny Ainge.  If Ainge can continually put talent around Rondo so Rondo can continually make most of his points in the paint and dish assists to the scorers, then we are watching another future Hall of Famer on a stacked Boston lineup.  If Rondo floats in a few years of mediocrity, well Mike D'Antoni may be right.

NBA Officiating, David Stern, and Where The Bodies Are Buried

This topic deserves far more time and words than I'll be setting down here, but after reading a few articles today in the midst of an NBA Playoffs that's been wearing its best March Madness disguise, I think there's something really interesting to be said about the NBA, its officiating, and David Stern's tyrannical gag-rule when it comes to comments about the refs.

First, Blazers coach Nate McMillan was fined $35,000 by the league for "complaining" about the officiating in his team's first game against the Mavs. It seems McMillan committed the unpardonable sin of pointing out the 19-2 free throw disparity between the Mavs and Blazers in the 4th quarter. Dirk German alone attempted as many free throws during the game as the entire Blazers team.

Now, far be it for me -- much less an NBA head coach -- to allege intentional, deliberate favoritism by an NBA ref. But quite frankly, it seems absurd that coaches are so regularly fined for saying anything -- and I mean quite literally ANYTHING -- that might be construed as negative about the refereeing in a game. I mean, it's not as if an NBA ref ever used "his knowledge of league directives, the personalities of fellow refs, the philosophies of N.B.A. coaches and the physical condition of players to place bets on league games, including some he officiated." Oh, wait.

Then, to make this topic (and this series) spicier, comes the news that Danny Crawford is scheduled to be the lead official in game 2. Coincidentally -- and I'm sure this is just coincidence -- the Mavs happen to be an astonishing 2-16 in playoff games refereed by Crawford; they are 48-41 in every other playoff game. The Mavs have lost 6 straight games and 16 of the last 17 officiated by Crawford. Huh. What a coincidence. Of course, Mark Cuban had better not plan on bringing this statistical anomaly to the league's attention. After all, the boy owner has already been fined an outlandish $1.7 million for opening his trap in ways that hurt the league's feelings.

All of which brings us to David Stern. The commish has presided over a golden period for the sport, at least as far public interest and ratings are concerned (there are those allegations of impending $400 million losses, after all). What goes unmentioned, and more or less unexamined, is the iron grip he has over the sport. I'm certainly not one to spread conspiracy theories, but Stern's use of fines, in particular, seems to me to be an incredible exercise of power, or more specifically, of control. Stern wants everyone -- players, coaches, owners, etc. -- to toe the party line, and any hint of dissent is crushed immediately and expensively. I'm no investigative reporter, and, as I've said, I'm not one to spread conspiracy theories, but the NBA's perspective on its officials and the very real possibility that they make mistakes seems to me to point towards something more subtle and, I daresay, malicious.

But don't take my word for it. Stern said it best when he angrily told a room full of NBA All-Stars that "he knows where 'the bodies are buried' in the NBA, witnesses recounted, because he had buried some of them himself."

Food for thought during Game 2 tonight.

p.s. As always, your comments and responses are welcome.

Houston Rockets say Goodbye to Adelman

As has yet to be pointed out, my allegiances in the NBA fall to the Houston Rockets.  As a kid in my driveway, I would practice the "Dream Shake" and the up and under tirelessly hoping to be the next Hakeem Olajuwon.  Needless to say I did not grow up to be seven feet tall and a freak athlete, so both moves were only marginally helpful at the shooting guard position.  I grew up under the era of Rudy Tomjanovich. In my eyes, Rudy could do no wrong.  I watched the Rockets have decent seasons under Jeff Van Gundy, and with some revisionist history, I grew to respect what Van Gundy brought to the table.  But in the history of Houston Rockets' coaches, nobody has had a better winning percentage (.659) than Rick Adelman. 

The fact remains that no Rockets' coach was even close to the .659 put up by Rick Adelman over 4 seasons.  In fact, the next closest is the legendary Tomjanovich at .559. Adelman is also the owner of the 2nd longest winning streak in NBA history, when a surprise Rockets team ripped off 22.  The number that is most troublesome though for Adelman is 9.  The total number of playoff wins over 4 years.  That isn't to say that the talent of the Rockets deserved more, but in the end it never felt like enough.

As GM Daryl Morey moves forward in what appears to be the most amiable coach-team split in recent memory, the Rockets will have to look through a pretty skimpy pool of options.  Former Cleveland Cavaliers coach Mike Brown seems to be the top prospect.  Ultimately my hope is that the Pacers let go of interim coach Frank Vogel, and the Rockets raise their hand as the team to make him permanent.  But after a hard fought series with the Bulls, I have a feeling Vogel will be re-signing.

As for Adelman, he isn't done in the NBA.  If I had to guess, we will see him on a team better than the Rockets next year.  No reason to be sad, Adelman is looking to take over a contender.  With Phil Jackson and Doc Rivers on their way out, look for Adelman to be stepping in to a big role.  There should be no hard feelings from Rockets' fans.  With a healthy McGrady and Yao, the last few years could have been different.  Its time for the Rockets to rebuild, and Adelman doesn't have the time.

The Stats Hoop Blog

Sports VU was recently featured in Wired Magazine as a company that is adding new features to the NBA in the form of advanced metrics.  Stats such as dribbles per possession or total miles covered can now be analyzed for each player.  This recent blog post outlines the player's involvement in wins and losses.  The players examined were Dirk Nowitzki, Manu Ginobili, Monta Ellis, Kevin Durant and Kevin Martin.  Not too surprising, but Durant and Nowitski's touch % climbs in losses.  However, Monta Ellis actually gets fewer touches in losses than in wins.  I would expect to see Ellis' touch rate climb as the Warrior's fought to get into the game. 

As of now only six NBA teams are using these statistics.  But as teams continue to look for every advantage possible, you know the number of teams participating will climb quickly.

2011 Playoff Preview: West Round 1

1. San Antonio Spurs   v.   8. Memphis Grizzlies

Regular Season Matchup: 2-2 

Overview: The Spurs are going to have to start the series without star Manu Ginobili, who is out with a sprained elbow.  The Spurs have changed this year to a more up tempo style on offense.  Gone are the days when San Antonio could play four low and dump it down to Tim Duncan.  With Ginobili out, even more of the pressure to score is going fall squarely on the shoulders of Tony Parker.  Parker has a favorable match-up against the young Mike Conley.  The biggest concern for the Spurs is the beat 'em up drag it out style of the playoffs.  Marc Gasol and offensive powerhouse Zach Randolph maybe too much to handle for an aged from line of the Spurs.

Key Matchups: Sam Young, Shane Battier, Tony Allen v. Manu Ginobli and perimeter players. Memphis' three great perimeter defenders have to slow a Spurs team that shoots 40% from 3.  

Prediction: In a series where it becomes apparent that the Spurs just don't match-up. Memphis in 6.

2. Los Angeles Lakers   v.   7. New Orleans Hornets

Regular Season Matchup: 4-0 Lakers 

Overview: The Hornets are greatly hampered without the services of the team's leading scorer, David West.  The Hornets defense has been stingy all year, and they will need to find a way to stop the Lakers.  Chris Paul has a favorable match-up against whoever the Lakers choose to put on him.  With little offense coming from the PG position for the Lakers, Paul will be free to put most of his effort towards the offensive end.  Paul will be the key if the Hornets even want to win a game in a tough series.

Key Matchups: Emeka Okafor and Carl Landry vs. Lamar Odom, Andrew Bynum, and Pau Gasol.  The size of the Lakers is a problem for any team, but the Hornets are particularly susceptible without the help of David West.

Prediction: Chris Paul's pride and stingy Hornets' defense let them steal one.  Los Angeles in 5.

3.  Dallas Mavericks   v.   6.  Portland Trail Blazers

Regular Season Matchup: 2-2 

Overview: The statistical breakdown of both teams is remarkably similar.  Both teams get 20+ ppg from their power forwards, Portland's LeMarcus Aldridge and Dallas' Dirk Nowitzki.  Both point guards are veterans with who look to pass first, Portland's Andre Miller and Dallas' Jason Kidd.  The defenses are both anchored by tough centers leading the teams in blocks and rebounds, Portland's Marcus Camby and Dallas' Tyson Chandler.  After the scarily similar production from these three positions, the teams look significantly different.  Dallas has struggled to fill a bench deeper than 6th man of the year candidate Jason Terry.  Portland on the other hand will be starting former All-Star Gerald Wallace, who they added to the team at the trade deadline.  Portland will also see contributions from Wes Matthews, Rudy Fernandez, Nicolas Batum, and of course former All-Star Brandon Roy.

Key Matchups: Dirk Nowitzki v. LeMarcus Aldrige.  I expect this to be big scoring nights for both players.  Aldridge doesn't do well on defense leaving the basket, but Nowitzki can't cover anyone near the basket.  The only real question here is the still lingering curiosity... is Aldridge for real?

Prediction: The muscles of Matthews and Wallace are two much, and the Blazers close at home.  Portland in 6

4. Oklahoma City Thunder   v.   5. Denver Nuggets

Regular Season Matchup: 3-1 Thunder 

Overview: Both of these teams are so much fun to watch, it is almost a shame that they are a first round match-up.  The easier of the two teams to understand are the OKC Thunder.  Kevin Durant continues to be engine that stirs the drink to borrow a phrase from Charles Barkley.  Russell Westbrook is one of many players who took a huge step forward from the experience with Team USA this summer.  The addition of Kendrick Perkins make the Thunder scary down low with Ibaka and Perkins protecting the basket.  The Nuggets are a little more of an anomaly.  The roster's depth is an embarrassment of riches.  With the addition of 80% of the Knicks starters, a PG in Ty Lawson who should have already been starting, and the loss of only one key player in Carmelo, this team is loaded with options and line-ups.  The Nuggets play hard nose defense, and then they turn it into big points on the offensive end.  Since the All-Star break the Nuggets point deferential has been higher than any other team in the NBA.  

Key Matchups: Ty Lawson v. Russell Westbrook.  Both point guards have been a huge part of the team's growth this year.  When Westbrook is on shooting, then the Thunder cannot be stopped by anyone.  Lawson is the pace car for the Nuggets offense.

Prediction: Both teams play in front of two of the best fan bases.  Each team wins their home games.  Thunder in 7.

2011 Playoff Preview: East Round 1

Just in case there aren't enough playoff previews/predictions circling through the interwebs, here's the NBA Zone Press edition. I'll be doing the East preview; Thornton will be doing the West.

As an aside, I know some writers get kicks out of making predictions for the whole playoffs, but we'll be taking things round by round to account for the way some teams seem to find themselves as the playoffs progress.

1. Chicago Bulls vs. 8. Indiana Pacers

Regular Season Matchup: 3-1 Bulls

Overview: As the season has worn on, the Bulls -- with presumed COY Tom Thibodeau and the MVP-anointed Derrick Rose -- have become media darlings to make it at least to the Finals. Frankly, though, this team really does have what it takes. The biggest question mark facing Rose et al. is how a young, relatively playoff-inexperienced squad will handle the pressures of a 7-game series and the weight of lofty expectations.

As for the Pacers, they finished at 37-45, and haven't been over .500 since Dec. 10 (which is a hell of an indictment of the weakness of the East -- sorry, Houston Rockets). This season was Roy Hibbert's coming out party (of sorts), and Tyler Hansbrough showed flashes of NBA-level game as he finally got burn. However, this team is neither deep enough nor talented enough to handle hurricane Derrick Rose.

Key Matchup: Derrick Rose vs. Darren Collison

Collison has the unenviable job of stopping the likely MVP, who has discovered a lethal 3-point shot to go along with his blistering speed. Indiana's only chance at making this series even remotely interesting is if Collison can slow Rose.

Prediction: Bulls in 4

2. Miami Heat vs. 7. Philadelphia 76ers

Regular Season Matchup: 3-0 Heat

Overview: The 76ers are a feel-good story of the season, winning 14 more games than last season under head coach Doug Collins. Andre Igoudala has been reborn as a shut-down defender, and Jrue Holliday and Lou Williams form a young, but competent, backcourt.

As for the Heat, they've had quite a tumultuous season, from their pretentious premature anointing, to a season-high 5-game losing streak in March, to a late-season surge that saw them secure the East's 2nd seed. The combo of Wade-Bosh-LeBaby has more or less lived up to expectations, although any time one of the three puts up a box score like Bosh's 10-4 here, even a BronBron triple double can't get them over the hump.

Still, the firepower the Heat will bring to this series will be far too much for the 76ers to handle. In particular, look for LeBron to destroy whoever is assigned to guard him.

Key Matchups: Dwayne Wade vs. Andre Igoudala

Iggy has the defensive chops to put a dent in DWade's game -- he has to do so for the Sixers' to have any chance at being competitive in this series.

LeBron James vs. Thaddeus Young/Andres Nocioni

LeCrab Dribble should go absolutely haywire in this series -- the Sixers simply don't have the defensive talent at the 3 spot to stop him.

Prediction: Heat in 5

3. Boston Celtics vs. 6. New York Knicks

Regular Season Matchup: 4-0 Celtics

Overview: I think this is the best of the East playoff matchups. There's a lot of history between these two teams, and at least two of the games will be played in the world's most famous basketball arena. Various pundits have offered explanations, but regardless of the true answer, the Celtics haven't seemed like the same team since the Perkins-for-Green trade at the deadline. Nevertheless, Jermaine O'Neal finally got some burn over the last few games, and the Big Aristotle is set to make his return for the playoffs. Boston's playoff hopes hinge on how these two big fellas perform in the paint (although a series against a team featuring Jared Jeffries at the 5 won't be that big of a test).

As for the Knicks, they've been streaky in the purest sense since the Melo trade. After a 1-9 stretch in March, they reeled off 7 straight wins before dropping the last two games of the season to the Bulls and Celtics. The combination of Melo, Amare, and Chauncey Billups can hang with the best in the league when all three are on, but there's not a whole lot of depth or defensive toughness on this roster.

Key Matchups: Paul Pierce vs. Carmelo Anthony

In a battle of two of the game's best 3's, expect Pierce's defensive tenacity to wear down Melo and bring out the worst in the low field goal percentage/ball stopper side of him. The question is whether Pierce has enough left in his 33-year-old legs to play shut-down defense AND be a go-to option for the Celtics down the stretch.

Kevin Garnett vs. Amare Stoudemire

Two physical, freakishly athletic 4's with bad knees: can Amare put the Knicks -- undoubtably his team, despite the Melo trade -- on his back and will them to play tough defense in addition to Mike D'Antoni run-n-gun? Can KG's passion and leadership pull the Celtics out of their post-Perk funk?

Prediction: Celtics in 7

4. Orlando Magic vs. 5. Atlanta Hawks

Regular Season Matchup: 3-1 Hawks

Overview: This is an intriguing matchup with a lot of uncertainty. It pits a Hawks team that ended the season in freefall -- losing its last 6 games including a 115-83 thrashing at the hands of the Wizkids -- against a Magic team that finished at a very quiet 52-30 without ever seeming to find its identity after two midseason trades that remade the team. The questions in this series are tantalizing -- can the Hawks stop Dwight? Will they need to -- will Dwight finally put the team on his back and utterly dominate when it counts? Will All-Star Joe Johnson show up, or will he continue to be too busy counting the haul in his new contract? How quickly will ZaZa Pachulia foul out of every game?

Key Matchup: Al Horford vs. Dwight Howard

The Hawks' young center had a career year, and seems to be making the transition into one of the game's best centers on the offensive side. Can he dominate the paint against the man who is unequivocally the best center in the league? Can he find enough of a scoring touch to provoke Dwight into committing unnecessary early fouls? The Hawks best chance in this series is to keep Dwight on the bench -- this depends directly on Horford's toughness and touch.

Prediction: Magic in 6

2011 NBA Power Rankings

1	Chicago Bulls	Derrick Rose should win the MVP at the end of the season.  Tom Thibodeau should win the Coach of the Year.  The roles are filled in perfectly by Boozer, Deng, and Noah.  Add in Taj Gibson, Omir Asik, and now Kurt Thomas, they can line up down low against anyone.
2	Miami Heat	It has been an up and down season.  Lebron and Wade were number 1 and 2 in scoring for the month of March.  They are the first teammates to do that in decades.  At the end of the day though, playoff basketball is a different beast.  Does Lebron give up like he did last year?
3	Los Angeles Lakers	Through the season, the Lakers were able to hide a little from the limelight because of the talents in South Beach.  Other than 4 three game losing streaks throughout the season, the Lakers have been able to turn it on and off when it matters.  But with 5 straight losses since April 3rd, Lakers fans are hoping that they still know where the switch is.
4	Oklahoma City Thunder	While the Thunder record (54-26) might not justify a 4 spot in the power rankings, the team has changed tremendously since the Kendrick Perkins and Jeff Green trade.  Following the trade deadline, Ibaka upped his blocks per game to over 3.  With Perkins defending the basket, Ibaka is free to roam for weak side blocks.
5	Dallas Mavericks	The Mavericks have been very streaky all season.  With two games until the playoffs, the question is which way will they go.  The Mavericks know what they will get from Dirk, but where is the rest going to come from…
6	San Antonio Spurs	The Spurs are the only team in the West with over 60 wins, but a team with not as much talent and old legs has looked a little slower the last few weeks in the season.  Can the Spurs match up to a very physical Memphis in the first round?
7	Denver Nuggets	The Nuggets have been incredibly well rounded, versatile, and fun to watch since the offensive black hole, Carmelo Anthony, released his hostages.  The new Nuggets are fast, defensive, and explosive.  The biggest concern is finding a closer, and when everyone else steps up their efforts, will the Nuggets have another level?
8	Portland Trail Blazers	Portland is currently 18-1 odds to win the Finals.  With a physical starting group of Andre Miller, Wesley Matthews, Gerald Wallace, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Marcus Camby and a bench of Roy, Fernandez, and Batum, this team can step up physically to any other team in the West.
9	Memphis Grizzlies	Memphis has three of the best wing defenders in the game with Sam Young, Tony Allen, and Shane Battier.  With Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph, the most underrated All-Star snub, banging down low, the Spurs guards and big men will be well pressed to find an easy basket.
10	Boston Celtics	Last year after Christmas, Boston went 26-26, and fans and media alike were counting them out.  Hope is still alive that the same thing happens again this season.
11	Orlando Magic	The Magic season has been wish washy.  The team is Howard and hoards of shooters floating on the outside.  With a first round matchup with the Hawks, the Magic catch a break playing a team that has struggled since the All-Star break.
12	New Orleans Hornets	The loss of David West doesn’t leave much hope for the playoffs, but it does leave some hope for resigning West in what could be CP3’s last year.
13	New York Knicks	The Knicks have obvious stars in Amare and Carmelo, but in creating a team with such star power, the depth has been completely removed from the team.  The Knicks have good building blocks, but it will be another year or two before this team can compete.
14	Philadelphia 76ers	A huge surprise this season, the Sixers have performed way above expectations with new coach Doug Collins.  The bigger surprise is that much of this season’s push came without No. 2 overall pick Evan Turner.
15	Houston Rockets	The Rockets have the opposite problem of the Knicks.  The Rockets have been so deep this season that no player ever got any sort of rhythm.  The big question for the Rockets this offseason, what do we do with Yao?
16	Indiana Pacers	Frank Vogel took over the team midseason, and he has had a 20-17 run.  That should be enough to at least get a head job somewhere next season.  The young core of the team is there with Hibbert, Collison, George, and Hansbrough stepping up as of late, but Granger is not enough to carry the team.  They have cap space, and they need a little help getting over the top.
17	Golden State Warriors	Golden State has loads of young talent and absolutely no defense.  The backcourt of Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry is explosive offensively, but both smaller guards have problems handling opposing guards on defense.
18	Phoenix Suns	The Suns are floating around in no man’s land.  With management unwilling to let Nash move to a new team, the Suns are left with only one real starter for the future in new acquisition Marcin Gortat.  What used to be a fun team with personality has been doomed for the lottery with the loss of Amare and the addition of Vince Carter.
19	Atlanta Hawks	The Hawks team often looks like the Atlanta fans: disinterested and apathetic.  The offense most commonly regresses to “IsoJoe.”  Unfortunately, Joe Johnson cannot carry an offense like Lebron.  The best question now… where is Josh Smith going to end up?
20	Milwaukee Bucks	The Bucks were expecting more from a team with several free agent additions to a surprising team last year.  But signing players that have struggled to find a winning team like Gooden, Maggette, and Salmons should have been a warning that there was no need to Fear the Deer.
21	Utah Jazz	In a year that Jerry Sloan and Deron Williams both left Utah, the future looks very different than it did at the beginning of the season.  Utah definitely missed Boozer, as Al Jefferson couldn’t replace Boozer’s athleticism.  Now with Favors, Heyward, and a couple early picks, the Jazz are looking to rebuild quickly.
22	Los Angeles Clippers	The Clippers were a great team to watch this year.  Blake Griffin was flying around the court.  Eric Gordon, DeAndre Jordan, and an engaged Baron Davis looked like a team that nobody wanted to play.  Unfortunately, that is where the roster ended.  An All-Star last year, Chris Kaman didn’t offer much of anything in the games that he was able to play.  If the Clippers can add a solid 3 to the lineup, then this team could be the best in LA in 2 years.
23	Charlotte Bobcats	What is Jordan doing?  There isn’t any talent on this team after Stephen Jackson.  Considering what other teams have gotten in return for their talent, the Bobcats have completely missed out.  Expect the Bobcats to stay below 20 for the next several years.
24	New Jersey Nets	The Deron Williams trade will either be a great move or a terrible move.  So much of that depends on him staying in NJ/Brooklyn.  With the 1 and 5 in place and with Humphries rebounding out of control, the Nets need to look for a 2 and 3.  Travis Outlaw’s ridiculous contract isn’t cutting it.
25	Detroit Pistons	This team is a mess.  Joe Dumars is the most hit or miss GM ever to grace the NBA.  After working hard to maintain and build a team that consistently competed for championships, Joe drafted Darko and extended Rip Hamilton.  Now his team protests at practice.
26	Sacramento Kings	There may just be too many hot heads on this team.  There is no veteran leadership to direct Tyreke Evans and DeMarcus Cousins.  Sacramento, at least you won’t have to watch the train wreck.  Next year: The Real NBA Players of Orange County.
27	Minnesota Timberwolves	The Wolves bright spot has obviously been Kevin Love.  But during his 53 game double-double streak, the Timberwolves went 13-40.  Minnesota now can build around Love, Anthony Randolph, and crazy Michael Beasley.  But don’t they all actually play the same position?
28	Toronto Raptors	Bright spot: DeMar DeRozen’s progress.  Less than bright spot: Everything else.  Raptors, apologize to Canada.
29	Washington Wizards	Taking John Wall for granted for a second, the secretly good move of the year was adding Jordan Crawford to the Wizards.  Crawford has nine 20 point games in his first 21 with the Wizards.  Ted Leonsis does need to chill out with the “a new big three has announced its arrival – Wall, Crawford, and Blatche.”  Blatche!  Ted, calm down and recognize that nobody in the great Washington area agrees with you.
30	Cleveland Cavaliers	Cleveland fans have one thing to be excited about.  Your owner is willing to pay $12 million for a lottery pick in a subpar draft.   That is essentially what he did by trading Mo Williams for Baron Davis.  The question now is, where do you start?

Allow Me to Please Introduce Myself

Good news -- the NBA Zone Press peanut gallery has just doubled. Before Thornton and I continue talking all things NBA, I wanted to take a moment to introduce myself -- in particular, to tell you 5 things you should know about me as you read these posts.

Without further ado:

(1) I love the Washington Wizards. Passionately. Irrationally. I've loved them for a while now, since when Gilbert Arenas was blogging his heart out and dropping daggers like this:

Now, I am 100% on board with the John Wall rebuild experiment, so be prepared for a ton of reflections on what it takes for a bottom feeder--with a losing culture--to turn it around and put together a contender.

(2) I hate the Heat. I've always kind of disliked them, but they made the hate flow free when they added my least favorite player, LeCrab Dribble. Believe me, I have mad respect for BronBron and his freak althetic talents, but watching three consecutive years of playoff series between my Wizkids and the Cavaliers, I can't help but loathe his petulance, arrogance, and this:

Yes, Arenas choked -- I'll be the first to admit it. But LeBaby epitomized classless behavior by approaching Gil before that second FT and trying to get inside his head. That's not how the game should be played. That's not how the so-called Greatest Player of his Generation should have to win games.

(3) I'm not a big advanced metrics guy. Instead, I'm a firm believer in subjective appreciation of a player's value -- let's call it the Eye Test. Here's an example. According to John Hollinger's PER metric, Kendrick Perkins is the 51st best Center in the league. He's behind Darko, Kwame Brown, and Timofey Mozgov, that famous defender:

Frankly, that makes no sense -- and every person who watches NBA games KNOWS that makes no sense. There's a reason Perk was a huge factor on the 2008 Celtics Championship team, and a reason the Thunder added him at the deadline. He's the sort of player who contributes in ways you can't measure -- hustle, toughness, and teamwork. So, as I write about players on this site, know that I'm valuing them according to what I see with my own eyes, not according to metrics.

(4) I'm incredibly interested in the CBA and other legal issues that are going to take center stage as soon as the season is done. I'm currently working on a paper addressing the contrasts between the NFL and NBA CBA negotiations, so standby to see some excerpts from that work.

(5) I think the Los Angeles Lakers will win their third consecutive championship this season. They have lost 5 straight, yes, but this team is built for postseason success. They have length, they have experience, they have one of the best on-the-ball defenders in the league, they know their roles, and they have Kobe, who -- regardless of what crunch-time stats might say -- remains the league's most clutch player in my mind.

That being said, the Finals I would most like to see is Thunder-Bulls. That's because that is the league's future, in my mind. And it's a bright future: two teams led by Durant and Rose, who are rare talents who actually give a crap, who work their asses off and are the kind of teammates any player would want to have. And the two teams have been built the right way, in my mind -- from the ground up, around specific roles and with a special emphasis on chemistry. It's the model I hope the Wizards follow, and it's the model that produces teams that play the kind of basketball that keeps me coming back for more.

Mock NBA Draft 2011: Worst Picks

Deciding who the worst picks in a Mock draft are going to be is a paradoxical task.  Just by suggesting that a predicted pick would be a bust implies that the team shouldn't make that pick.  The pick will not have the value that the team is looking to get.  These are a list of players who teams will pick because they seem like the right pick or because scouts say this is where a player should go.  Fans just sit and hope that your team doesn't make a pick so lacking in creativity and promise that you put off hopes for the future another year.

(2) Minnesota Timberwolves- Kyrie Irving
Duke freshman Kyrie Irving made a big splash as a rookie for the first month of the season before going down to injury.  Irving scored double digit points in every game he played including 31 against Michigan State and 28 against Arizona in the Sweet Sixteen.  However, Irving doesn't have the dynamic athletic ability that define recent top point guards Derrick Rose, Rajon Rondo, and John Wall.  Against better defending teams like Marquette and Butler, Irving had 5 turnovers in each game.  At the number 2 pick, the Timberwolves need a game changer.  In 2009, the Timberwolves took three point guards: Jonny Flynn, Spanish sensation Ricky Rubio, and North Carolina star Ty Lawson.  At this point only Lawson has panned out, but not for the Timberwolves.  With a big hole to fill, Minnesota avoid a PG with the upside of Raymond Felton.

(25) Chicago Bulls- Mason Plumlee
Chicago's biggest hole is at the SG position.  Currently, nobody other than Derrick Rose can create his own shot or consistently stretch the floor.  Kyle Korver has not been the solution for the Bulls, who could have stolen a perfect fit like Ray Allen this summer.  The draft, as it currently stands, does not provide any immediate options to help fell Chicago's biggest need.  Plumlee is the perfect example of a player who is tall and athletic, but doesn't translate into game changing performances. As a Sophomore, Plumlee averaged only 7.2 ppg, 8.4 rpg, only 1.7 bpg, and a scorching 44% from the foul line.  Mason Plumlee has the ceiling of Brian Scalabrine.  With practice and couple minimum contracts, Plumlee will become a leader in NBA towel waves.