As an aside, I know some writers get kicks out of making predictions for the whole playoffs, but we'll be taking things round by round to account for the way some teams seem to find themselves as the playoffs progress.
1. Chicago Bulls vs. 8. Indiana Pacers
Regular Season Matchup: 3-1 Bulls
Overview: As the season has worn on, the Bulls -- with presumed COY Tom Thibodeau and the MVP-anointed Derrick Rose -- have become media darlings to make it at least to the Finals. Frankly, though, this team really does have what it takes. The biggest question mark facing Rose et al. is how a young, relatively playoff-inexperienced squad will handle the pressures of a 7-game series and the weight of lofty expectations.
As for the Pacers, they finished at 37-45, and haven't been over .500 since Dec. 10 (which is a hell of an indictment of the weakness of the East -- sorry, Houston Rockets). This season was Roy Hibbert's coming out party (of sorts), and Tyler Hansbrough showed flashes of NBA-level game as he finally got burn. However, this team is neither deep enough nor talented enough to handle hurricane Derrick Rose.
Key Matchup: Derrick Rose vs. Darren Collison
Collison has the unenviable job of stopping the likely MVP, who has discovered a lethal 3-point shot to go along with his blistering speed. Indiana's only chance at making this series even remotely interesting is if Collison can slow Rose.
Prediction: Bulls in 4
2. Miami Heat vs. 7. Philadelphia 76ers
Regular Season Matchup: 3-0 Heat
Overview: The 76ers are a feel-good story of the season, winning 14 more games than last season under head coach Doug Collins. Andre Igoudala has been reborn as a shut-down defender, and Jrue Holliday and Lou Williams form a young, but competent, backcourt.
As for the Heat, they've had quite a tumultuous season, from their pretentious premature anointing, to a season-high 5-game losing streak in March, to a late-season surge that saw them secure the East's 2nd seed. The combo of Wade-Bosh-LeBaby has more or less lived up to expectations, although any time one of the three puts up a box score like Bosh's 10-4 here, even a BronBron triple double can't get them over the hump.
Still, the firepower the Heat will bring to this series will be far too much for the 76ers to handle. In particular, look for LeBron to destroy whoever is assigned to guard him.
Key Matchups: Dwayne Wade vs. Andre Igoudala
Iggy has the defensive chops to put a dent in DWade's game -- he has to do so for the Sixers' to have any chance at being competitive in this series.
LeBron James vs. Thaddeus Young/Andres Nocioni
LeCrab Dribble should go absolutely haywire in this series -- the Sixers simply don't have the defensive talent at the 3 spot to stop him.
Prediction: Heat in 5
3. Boston Celtics vs. 6. New York Knicks
Regular Season Matchup: 4-0 Celtics
Overview: I think this is the best of the East playoff matchups. There's a lot of history between these two teams, and at least two of the games will be played in the world's most famous basketball arena. Various pundits have offered explanations, but regardless of the true answer, the Celtics haven't seemed like the same team since the Perkins-for-Green trade at the deadline. Nevertheless, Jermaine O'Neal finally got some burn over the last few games, and the Big Aristotle is set to make his return for the playoffs. Boston's playoff hopes hinge on how these two big fellas perform in the paint (although a series against a team featuring Jared Jeffries at the 5 won't be that big of a test).
As for the Knicks, they've been streaky in the purest sense since the Melo trade. After a 1-9 stretch in March, they reeled off 7 straight wins before dropping the last two games of the season to the Bulls and Celtics. The combination of Melo, Amare, and Chauncey Billups can hang with the best in the league when all three are on, but there's not a whole lot of depth or defensive toughness on this roster.
Key Matchups: Paul Pierce vs. Carmelo Anthony
In a battle of two of the game's best 3's, expect Pierce's defensive tenacity to wear down Melo and bring out the worst in the low field goal percentage/ball stopper side of him. The question is whether Pierce has enough left in his 33-year-old legs to play shut-down defense AND be a go-to option for the Celtics down the stretch.
Kevin Garnett vs. Amare Stoudemire
Two physical, freakishly athletic 4's with bad knees: can Amare put the Knicks -- undoubtably his team, despite the Melo trade -- on his back and will them to play tough defense in addition to Mike D'Antoni run-n-gun? Can KG's passion and leadership pull the Celtics out of their post-Perk funk?
Prediction: Celtics in 7
4. Orlando Magic vs. 5. Atlanta Hawks
Regular Season Matchup: 3-1 Hawks
Overview: This is an intriguing matchup with a lot of uncertainty. It pits a Hawks team that ended the season in freefall -- losing its last 6 games including a 115-83 thrashing at the hands of the Wizkids -- against a Magic team that finished at a very quiet 52-30 without ever seeming to find its identity after two midseason trades that remade the team. The questions in this series are tantalizing -- can the Hawks stop Dwight? Will they need to -- will Dwight finally put the team on his back and utterly dominate when it counts? Will All-Star Joe Johnson show up, or will he continue to be too busy counting the haul in his new contract? How quickly will ZaZa Pachulia foul out of every game?
Key Matchup: Al Horford vs. Dwight Howard
The Hawks' young center had a career year, and seems to be making the transition into one of the game's best centers on the offensive side. Can he dominate the paint against the man who is unequivocally the best center in the league? Can he find enough of a scoring touch to provoke Dwight into committing unnecessary early fouls? The Hawks best chance in this series is to keep Dwight on the bench -- this depends directly on Horford's toughness and touch.
Prediction: Magic in 6
I was browsing during work today and stumbled upon the blog, read a few posts:
ReplyDelete1) I am from Cleveland, and I also hate Lebron. Not because he is classless, although he can be, but because of his performance in the Boston series game 6. Since then, he has only solidified that he is nothing more than a pre-Modanna with a sense of entitlement and not a champion.
2) I also grew up hating the Bulls (the Shot), but love what they have become. It has been neat watching the core of the team develop the past couple years, and you gotta love the story of Deng or the fact that Rose still drives a pick up. Hopefully what they lack in experience they can make up with heart and work ethic.
3) Being a Washington fan, you may appreciate this comment by Reilly: "Do you really want to bet on a team that reserves a significant role for Gilbert Arenas?"
Nice analysis, anyways, I think I may keep reading.