1. San Antonio Spurs v. 8. Memphis Grizzlies
Regular Season Matchup: 2-2
Overview: The Spurs are going to have to start the series without star Manu Ginobili, who is out with a sprained elbow. The Spurs have changed this year to a more up tempo style on offense. Gone are the days when San Antonio could play four low and dump it down to Tim Duncan. With Ginobili out, even more of the pressure to score is going fall squarely on the shoulders of Tony Parker. Parker has a favorable match-up against the young Mike Conley. The biggest concern for the Spurs is the beat 'em up drag it out style of the playoffs. Marc Gasol and offensive powerhouse Zach Randolph maybe too much to handle for an aged from line of the Spurs.
Key Matchups: Sam Young, Shane Battier, Tony Allen v. Manu Ginobli and perimeter players. Memphis' three great perimeter defenders have to slow a Spurs team that shoots 40% from 3.
Prediction: In a series where it becomes apparent that the Spurs just don't match-up. Memphis in 6.
2. Los Angeles Lakers v. 7. New Orleans Hornets
Regular Season Matchup: 4-0 Lakers
Overview: The Hornets are greatly hampered without the services of the team's leading scorer, David West. The Hornets defense has been stingy all year, and they will need to find a way to stop the Lakers. Chris Paul has a favorable match-up against whoever the Lakers choose to put on him. With little offense coming from the PG position for the Lakers, Paul will be free to put most of his effort towards the offensive end. Paul will be the key if the Hornets even want to win a game in a tough series.
Key Matchups: Emeka Okafor and Carl Landry vs. Lamar Odom, Andrew Bynum, and Pau Gasol. The size of the Lakers is a problem for any team, but the Hornets are particularly susceptible without the help of David West.
Prediction: Chris Paul's pride and stingy Hornets' defense let them steal one. Los Angeles in 5.
3. Dallas Mavericks v. 6. Portland Trail Blazers
Regular Season Matchup: 2-2
Overview: The statistical breakdown of both teams is remarkably similar. Both teams get 20+ ppg from their power forwards, Portland's LeMarcus Aldridge and Dallas' Dirk Nowitzki. Both point guards are veterans with who look to pass first, Portland's Andre Miller and Dallas' Jason Kidd. The defenses are both anchored by tough centers leading the teams in blocks and rebounds, Portland's Marcus Camby and Dallas' Tyson Chandler. After the scarily similar production from these three positions, the teams look significantly different. Dallas has struggled to fill a bench deeper than 6th man of the year candidate Jason Terry. Portland on the other hand will be starting former All-Star Gerald Wallace, who they added to the team at the trade deadline. Portland will also see contributions from Wes Matthews, Rudy Fernandez, Nicolas Batum, and of course former All-Star Brandon Roy.
Key Matchups: Dirk Nowitzki v. LeMarcus Aldrige. I expect this to be big scoring nights for both players. Aldridge doesn't do well on defense leaving the basket, but Nowitzki can't cover anyone near the basket. The only real question here is the still lingering curiosity... is Aldridge for real?
Prediction: The muscles of Matthews and Wallace are two much, and the Blazers close at home. Portland in 6
4. Oklahoma City Thunder v. 5. Denver Nuggets
Regular Season Matchup: 3-1 Thunder
Overview: Both of these teams are so much fun to watch, it is almost a shame that they are a first round match-up. The easier of the two teams to understand are the OKC Thunder. Kevin Durant continues to be engine that stirs the drink to borrow a phrase from Charles Barkley. Russell Westbrook is one of many players who took a huge step forward from the experience with Team USA this summer. The addition of Kendrick Perkins make the Thunder scary down low with Ibaka and Perkins protecting the basket. The Nuggets are a little more of an anomaly. The roster's depth is an embarrassment of riches. With the addition of 80% of the Knicks starters, a PG in Ty Lawson who should have already been starting, and the loss of only one key player in Carmelo, this team is loaded with options and line-ups. The Nuggets play hard nose defense, and then they turn it into big points on the offensive end. Since the All-Star break the Nuggets point deferential has been higher than any other team in the NBA.
Key Matchups: Ty Lawson v. Russell Westbrook. Both point guards have been a huge part of the team's growth this year. When Westbrook is on shooting, then the Thunder cannot be stopped by anyone. Lawson is the pace car for the Nuggets offense.
Prediction: Both teams play in front of two of the best fan bases. Each team wins their home games. Thunder in 7.
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